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31FX Blog

Forex- Dollar was Steady as Trump seems to get Ready to Impose Tariff

The dollar index was flat as traders await fresh ECB and FOMC meeting minutes. They are also looking forward to the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 22-24, 2019.

Sino-US Trade War is keeping the Dollar Steady

August 19,2019

The dollar index was up to ↑98.053 because of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (↑1.611) stood at 1.57%, having pulled away from three-year trough of 1.47% marked last week as the global economy slowdown.

The safe-haven yen was under ↓106.56 earlier today on expectations that
policymakers would unleash new stimulus amid slowing global economies.
Developments on the Sino-U.S. trade front were in focus. U.S. President Donald Trump insisted that trade war with China did not harm to the U.S. and that the economy is “doing tremendously well.”

The euro was down to ↓1.1106 after Powell said that the Fed will lower rates in July as easing was not the start of a series of cuts. But the market expectations for the Fed to cut rates by another 25 basis points at the next policy meeting in September 19, 2019 have increased. Euro zone inflation data may push the pair lower the publication of the ECB and FOMC meeting minutes.

The cable was slumped at ↓1.2124 because of the possibility that Boris Johnson government will lead to fresh uncertainty, but looking forward that no-deal Br-exit could happen so the Pound will not crawl away from its worst levels in years.

Dollar still up after Trump stated that he is Not yet Ready for the Deal

August 20, 2019

The dollar index hit ↑98.40 after U.S. President Donald Trump said that he
is “not ready” for a deal with Beijing, but hinting again that he would like to resolved first the ongoing protests in Hong Kong .

The yen still down to ↓106.42 as the traders still waiting for the fresh monetary policy directions from FOMC minutes in Jackson
Hole Symposium where Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts dozens of central bankers, policymakers, academics and economists from around the world will having its annual economic policy symposium on August 22-24, 2019 at Jackson Hole, Wyo.

The euro still down to ↓1.1103 as Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte was
spoke and was expected to resign ahead of a no-confidence vote that has been called by the right-wing Lega party with the junior member of the governing coalition.

The sterling was also down to ↓1.2089 as UK PM Boris Johnson repeatedly
said that the Withdrawal Agreement will not be changed and that the backstop remains and still leave the EU on October 31 with or without a deal, although his pertaining to the former PM.

Dollar remain Bullish; All attention to Fed

August 22, 2019

The dollar maintained bullish bias and the yen was going up but still unable to gain upside because of the aggressive action of the trader in the market. From the minutes overnight, there was a bit more disagreement among FOMC members and the Fed will only cut as in a “mid cycle adjustment”,
expecting the consumer, jobs and the US economy to continue to grow, then the markets might respond in kind and turn risk-off, in anticipation of an
imported recession which should be supportive of the Yen and weigh on US stocks – many to the despair of President Trump. Chancellor Merkel says Irish backstop a ‘fallback position’ as Boris Johnson says Br-exit talks can finally begin.

Dollar Pushes Higher as await to Powell Speech

August 23, 2019

The dollar index was still up because of the ongoing strength of U.S. domestic demand. President Donald Trump has called for a cut of a full percentage point but Powell still looking forward to have dovish rate cut. Yen bullish traders and a move towards reclaiming 107.00 handle

After Powell’s speech, the dollar was down and even the NASDAQ composite index is tumbled 1.66% to 7860 (down -130 points) together with S&P index is down -41 points or -1.37% at 2882.97 and WTI crude oil futures are down $1.65 or -3.0% . The safe haven gold reached up to $27 or 1.77% at $1525 today.

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